A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
